Russia and the United States have agreed to hold nuclear arms negotiations this month and have invited China to participate in the discussions. As of June 2020, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, also referred to as New START, is the last major US-Russian arms agreement and is set the expire in February 2021. The New START accord limits the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems that the former Cold War opponents are allowed to possess.
The Trump administration has already withdrawn from other Cold War-era treaties, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty and the Open Skies treaty, citing Russian violations and China’s ability to strengthen its nuclear arsenal while unimpeded by the agreements. The INF treaty previously banned the use and development of both short and intermediate-range land-based nuclear missiles. The Open Skies treaty had allowed unarmed surveillance flights over the territory of participants.
While China is internationally recognized as a major rising power on the world stage, it possesses far less nuclear weapons than the United States or Russia. It is for this reason that China has been unwilling to participate in nuclear arms reduction talks. Without an agreement of any kind, it is likely that the US, Russia, and China could enter into a renewed nuclear arms race in 2021 or earlier.
Click here to read our Insight on the Forthcoming Nuclear Arms Race.
