Wargames conducted by the RAND corporation suggest that the US is likely to lose overseas engagements with near-peer competitors. These simulations indicate that vulnerabilities in US communications networks and insufficient quantities of precision-guided missiles would prevent the US from emerging victorious in scenarios such as a Russian invasion of the Baltic states or a confrontation with China over Taiwan. Such a US defeat would provoke significant economic disruption and could lead to an unravelling of the US-led global order. However, RAND Senior Defense Researcher David Ochmanek suggests that $24 billion additional yearly spending over a period of five years would enable the US to stockpile necessary quantities of smart missiles and strengthen the security of its communications networks.
