After a week of tit-for-tat retaliation between the US and Iran, tensions escalated even further when on January 3, 2020, a US air raid killed General Qassem Suleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Forces, along with seven others, including Abu Mahid al-Muhandis, the founder of Kataib Hezbollah. This marks a potential turning point in the Middle East and will likely draw retaliation from Iran, as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made a public statement vowing severe revenge. The conflict between Iran and the US has mostly been fought through proxies, spies, and sanctions, but President Trump’s decision to target General Suleimani is tantamount to an act of war and will have profound consequences for the region.
It is unlikely that Iran will retaliate with an open confrontation. Instead, Iran is likely to rely on asymmetric tactics, potentially targeting Iraq, American diplomats, and spies. The perilous nature of Americans in Iraq has led to the US government telling citizens to evacuate and may cause the withdrawal of American troops in the near future. It is unclear whether President Trump’s decision to target General Suleimani - a move his predecessors shied away from - will lead to a showdown between the countries, or lead to a more restrained Iran.
