The increasing energy production of the United States has sparked talk of the US as being a new energy superpower. The country, once heavily dependent on oil imports, has experienced a boom in oil and gas production and is expected to produce an average of over 12 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2019. It is estimated that with this increased output, the US will become a net exporter of petroleum in 2020. As the US steps into its new role as a competitor in world energy markets, there is some concern that this will affect its relationship with Saudi Arabia, a long-time ally and well-established “energy superpower”. However, concerns that the US relationship with Saudi Arabia is at risk are overblown. The US is almost certain to continue to maintain a strong relationship with Saudi Arabia in the future.
It is true that energy has been the most significant factor in the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States. However, the relationship between the two is not solely contingent on the buying and selling of oil. The two nations share common foes (and to a certain extent, common allies). Both countries are wary of Iranian influence in the Middle East and rely on each other to challenge Iranian actions in the region. This fact alone will ensure that the US and Saudi Arabia will continue to have a mutually beneficial relationship even as the US becomes an energy exporter. Furthermore, the US plays a key role in ensuring Saudi Arabian security. Saudi Arabia routinely purchases billions of dollars in military equipment from the US and relies on it for military training and advisory. It would not jeopardize ongoing arrangements over the matter of increased US energy production.
Additionally, a contentious relationship with the US could complicate Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain investment relationships with major American companies. Saudi Arabia is currently seeking to implement its Vision 2030 plan in an effort to diversify its economy and develop its public sector services. It needs massive amounts of foreign investment to accomplish this task and a cooling of the relationship with the US would make it a less appealing investment prospect for US financial firms as well as other businesses.
Finally, it must be noted that relationships between countries are not solely defined by national interests. The relationship between national leaders also plays a role. The current US administration considers Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to be strong ally. US President Donald Trump has remained steadfast in his support of the prince and has made this support a factor in his foreign policy. President Trump’s re-election in 2020 is by no means certain, but it is entirely possible that he shall remain at the helm of the United States through 2024. While the relationship between the two countries will endure as a result of the security dynamics in the region, the presence of the Trump Administration in the White House will add a further boost to the partnership for however long it lasts.
It is true that the new role of the US in global energy markets is a significant strategic shift. Nonetheless, the effects on its relationship with Saudi Arabia will be minimal. The two countries share close security ties that ensure that any potential tension from competition in the energy markets will be minimized. US energy production will have a big impact on its foreign policy, but the relationship with Saudi Arabia will not be harmed.
