An agreement has been reached between President Erdogan of Turkey and President Putin of Russia over the Idlib Governorate in Syria, which is the last major rebel stronghold in the country. This agreement halts the Syrian government’s plans to launch a major military offensive on Idlib, thereby avoiding unnecessary human casualties. In addition, the agreement establishes a new de-escalation zone which will be monitored by joint patrols of Turkish and Russian troops. Terrorist groups are to be removed from Idlib and humanitarian aid groups are to be granted unhindered access, allowing civilians to remain.
Prior to this agreement, both Russian and Syrian government forces had been targeting what they defined as radical rebels in Idlib through air strikes and other attacks, and Turkey had been deploying what they defined as defensive forces to its southwestern border with Syria in anticipation of a major offensive. The potential for escalated conflict in Idlib puts millions of internally displaced Syrians in danger as these refugees have relocated to Idlib, seeking shelter from conflict elsewhere in Syria. Turkey fears the escalated conflict in Idlib could pour millions more refugees into Turkey, adding to the estimated 3.5 million already there. Therefore, Turkey is desperate to find a peaceful resolution to this situation.
Holding all the cards in this campaign is Russia, which is supporting the Assad regime and its goal to regain control of Syria. Russia intends to maintain its ally in the region as well as its Mediterranean naval facility in Tartus and air base in Latakia. Part of the agreement between Russia and Turkey requires the restoration of critical transportation routes that connect the port of Latakia to major cities, including the now government-controlled city of Aleppo. Given the limited role of the United States during the Syrian Civil War, Russia has been left largely unchecked in their operations, allowing Assad to regain almost all the territory lost during the beginning of the war. Given their seat on the United Nations Security Council, Russia also has the ability to block any resolutions critical of the Assad regime. In contrast, the U.S. has remained virtually silent during the discord over Idlib, given that U.S. interests revolve around combating the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) elsewhere in Syria. Russia, being the backbone of Assad’s power in Syria, will be the deciding factor on the outcome of Idlib and possibly Syria altogether.
