In February 2018, the Italian town of Macerata was witness to a shooting that wounded 6 people. The instigator, a 28-year old man named Luca Traini, had targeted members of Macerata’s African community in retaliation for the murder of Pamela Mastropietro, an 18-year old woman whose body had been found cut up into pieces. In response to this attack, many Italians reacted positively, with Traini’s lawyer claiming “an outpouring of support”. Even Mastropietro’s mother held flowers sent to her by Traini at the funeral, in an apparent gesture of gratitude.
Following the media frenzy surrounding the Traini attack, the initial killing — which took place one month before an upcoming parliamentary election — was seized upon as a talking point by Italian politicians, most notably by Matteo Salvini, the leader of the La Lega Nord party, a populist and anti-immigrant party. Lega Nord would go on to win 17.4% of the vote in the subsequent election, a performance that gave it enough leverage to form a governing coalition with the Cinque Stelle, a populist and Eurosceptic party. Salvini now serves as both Deputy Prime Minister and the Minster of the Interior. Since then, Lega Nord has skyrocketed in public approval and is now reportedly polling at 32% of the vote. This result puts it ahead of not just the rival Democratic Party (a key opposition party), but also their governing coalition partner, Cinque Stelle. With Cinque Stelle polling at 28.7%, the populist coalition has a combined 60.7% approval rating.
The response to the Traini attack and the later election results show the degree of both anti-migrant and populist feelings in Italy, which has according to a recent Pew research survey, some of the strongest anti-migrant sentiments in Europe. These levels of anti-migrant sentiment in Italy add a layer of volatility to the already delicate matter of migrant status, and the level of support given to Traini in the wake of his actions is likely to inspire copycat actors. However, there are reasons to suspect that this will not lead to an unmitigated explosion of nationalist violence. Italy’s Years of Lead — the period of terrorism and political turmoil through the 1970s and 1980s — are still within living memory, and it is possible that fears of renewed civil violence will dampen enthusiasm for terror attacks against Italy’s migrant community. Furthermore, Salvini’s policies, such as sending back ships containing migrants, retain popular support and are a key factor in his party’s rise to the top of the polls. The continued implementation of these policies thus makes it unlikely that Italians will feel that their government has abandoned them and that they need to “solve the problem” on their own. As long as the Italian government is viewed as an effective outlet for channeling the populist sentiments of the Italian people, incidents of lethal violence such as the Traini shooting are likely to remain less common than might otherwise be feared.
However, despite these grounds for cautious optimism, there is still reason to be wary. The high level of anti-migrant sentiment remains a key risk factor for potential incidents of violence towards migrants, and reports of an increase in racially-motivated attacks over the past several months indicate that tensions are far from being ameliorated. The situation thus remains delicate.
What remains to be see is whether or not Italy will prove to be a bellwether for the rest of Europe in this regard. Strong performances by Germany’s AfD and Sweden’s Social Democrats in recent elections and their continued strength in ongoing polling would suggest that these particular nationalist movements are continuing to gain political momentum in their respective countries. The degree to which some of the feelings that are boosting these parties will also lead to violent acts is unclear. Italy, having a populist government and stronger nationalist and anti-migrant attitudes than the rest of Europe, is thus a key case study in what the future could look like in other European countries in which populist, nationalist, and anti-migrant attitudes continue to increase in political and cultural strengths.
