Diplomatic relations between the European Union (EU) and Turkey are once again being tested as the EU imposes sanctions on Turkey over a natural gas and oil drilling dispute in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Turkey has been exploring oil and gas fields near the coast of Cyprus, testing the sovereign territory claims of Cyprus in the waters surrounding the island, also known as the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Estimations suggest that the waters south of Cyprus’ coast harbor up to 227 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This could amount to revenues of more than €40 billion. Turkey has been claiming Northern Cyprus, or the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, as its sovereign territory since 1983, separating it from the United Nations-backed Republic of Cyprus. Turkey’s claims, however, are not legally recognized by other states and the EU. While Turkey argues that it has the right to explore gas and oil reserves in the Mediterranean Sea surrounding Cyprus, the EU views this as a breach of international law. As a consequence, the EU decided to impose sanctions against Turkey on November 11, 2019. These sanctions will officially remain effective until November 12, 2020. Afterwards, further steps will have to be discussed again among EU policymakers.
The EU Council decision (CFSP) 2019/1894 “concerning restrictive measures in view of Turkey’s unauthorized drilling activities in the Eastern Mediterranean” targets individuals involved in these drilling operations. Following the declaration that Turkey’s actions are “illegal” and “infringe the sovereignty or sovereign rights and jurisdiction of the Republic of Cyprus in its territorial sea, exclusive economic zone and continental shelf”, the EU may deny involved persons entry into, or transit through, the EU and may freeze their assets within the EU. While the impact that this measure will have on drilling operations is unclear, the sanctions will likely result in diplomatic and geopolitical tensions between Turkey and Western countries.
The EU’s sanctions tie into a series of political events that have strained diplomatic engagement between the EU and Turkey. These strongly relate to 1) Turkey’s recent strategic alignment with Russia, 2) the Syrian refugee crisis, and 3) relations between Turkey and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which includes, among others, the US, Canada, France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, and Belgium.
Debates about Turkey’s accession to the EU have been a subject of contention for years. Following recent tensions between the two parties, the EU decided to decrease financial funds for Turkey’s potential EU membership in the 2020 budget planning. One major reason for this move is Turkey’s geostrategic alignment with Russia. Despite protests from its NATO partners, Turkey has received deliveries of Russia’s defense weapon system S-400 in July 2019, giving preference to relations with its eastern partner Russia over its western allies.
A second salient issue is that of Syrian refugees. According to 2019 data by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, approximately 3.6 million Syrians have fled to Turkey following the Syrian civil war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan aims to establish a safe zone at the border to repatriate some of the Syrian refugees living in Turkey in order to resolve the crisis. Frustrated with the EU’s inaction regarding Syrian refugees, Turkey has leveraged the EU by threatening to let Syrian refugees migrate to Europe. This further strains relations between Turkish and EU policymakers, since right-wing parties in the EU maintain a strong anti-migration stance. The European migrant crisis of 2015 had tested unity among European states, indicating that European policymakers will again struggle to agree upon a common solution regarding migration.
A third point of contention that has driven a wedge between the EU and Turkey is Turkey’s offense in north-eastern Syria in October 2019. After US troops withdrew from the region, where they had supported Kurdish forces, Turkish troops pushed back the Kurdish militia YPG in Syria, fearing that Kurdish forces could gain power and land at the southern border and within Turkish territory. Antagonism between Turkey and the Kurdish people have created security risks in the region for decades. The government in Ankara declared the YPG a terrorist organization with ties to the Kurdish PKK party in Turkey. Following the offense in north-eastern Syria in October 2019, NATO strongly criticized Turkey for its actions. This has driven a wedge between NATO and Turkey. Entirely severing ties, however, could prove a geostrategic mistake for NATO. If Turkey abandons the NATO in favor of Russia, NATO members will lose access to Incirlik Air Base near Adana in southern Turkey. The air base provides an entryway into the Middle East, and losing access to the region from Turkey could prove a defense risk for NATO.
As these points of contention show, EU sanctions against Turkey put further pressure on a strategic alliance that is already under strain. It remains to be seen to what extent the EU enforces sanctions against Turkey. Turkey, however, may use Syrian refugees and Incirlik Air Base as leverage against the EU in diplomatic discussions.
