The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has been ravaged by an Ebola virus outbreak since August 2018, when it first emerged in the country’s eastern border provinces of North-Kivu and Ituri. As of July 31, 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that an estimated 2,700 people had been infected with the Ebola virus, of which 1,800 died, making it a grave health crisis. Tedros Adhanom, Director-General of the WHO, announced in July 2019 that the spread of the Ebola virus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, a designation used in only the most serious crises like the previous Ebola epidemic in Western Africa in 2014-2016, which claimed the lives of 11,300 people. While the health costs of such an emergency are high, the longer-term economic costs can be much higher, influencing trade, markets, and the local population.
Officials have anticipated that the current Ebola outbreak in the DRC may spread into the neighboring countries of Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and South Sudan ever since cases of infection were detected in Goma city, the capital of North Kivu province and a local travel hub with transport facilities like Goma International Airport. Thousands of Congolese regularly travel across borders to neighboring counties, and cases of Ebola have already been detected in Uganda. Other factors aggravate the DRC’s Ebola crisis, such as ongoing ethnic conflict, militia violence, a serious outbreak of measles, and the mistrust of local communities towards authorities and international health workers. These factors make it difficult for healthcare personnel to provide effective aid, increasing security risks in the country. Moreover, violent conflict forces the Congolese to migrate to neighboring countries, which explains why Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and South Sudan are at increased risk of an Ebola outbreak.
While the humanitarian impact of the Ebola virus disease is grave, the economic implications must be regarded with a similar concern. The Ebola crisis in West Africa of 2014-2016 cost the affected countries Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone approximately 2.8 billion USD. The World Bank estimated that between 2014 and 2016, Guinea lost 600 million USD, Liberia 300 million USD, and Sierra Leon as much as 1.9 billion USD, highlighting that the economic disruptions of such an epidemic can have long-term implications for countries and recovery can be slow. Markets can be disrupted because areas affected by the virus are quarantined, blocking trade and lowering the number of traders. An analysis of the economic impact of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone by the World Bank shows that the number of businesses closing down rose above the national average, that investment, production and consumption rates suffered, and that the international price of commodities from affected countries fell.
A vulnerability of the DRC in regard to the Ebola crisis could be its mining industry. The DRC is one of the world’s largest copper and cobalt producers, generating roughly 80% of its export revenue from the sale of cobalt, refined copper, copper ore, cobalt ore, cobalt oxides, and hydroxides. Therefore, mining is an important constituent of the DRC’s economy and the fact that as many as 2,600 artisanal mining sites are located along the eastern border of the DRC, including Ebola-infected regions, gives reason for concern. An increasing Ebola-related death toll could thus negatively affect the DRC’s mining business and revenues as the number of workers decreases and travel and trade restrictions are imposed. The WHO warned of the damaging effect that international travel and trade bans have on virus-affected countries, yet numerous states officially restricted travel during the West African Ebola crisis as well as the influenza A (H1N1) crisis of 2009.
As one of the world’s poorest countries, the DRC is struggling with challenges on several fronts, including economic, epidemiologic, and violent conflict-related issues. While the designation of the Ebola crisis in the DRC as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern is alarming, it has the potential to draw international attention to the situation and boost international aid in the DRC. In the near future, actions by the DRC government to stop the spread of Ebola and alleviate economic burdens must be monitored. This is particularly important now that Minister of Public Health Oly Ilunga Kalenga resigned in July 2019 after President Felix Tshisekedi revoked Ilunga Kalenga’s authority over the management of the Ebola crisis and installed a new task force that will directly report to him.
